On a finite planet economic and population growth are suicide for humanity!
15 years IEA World Energy Outlook -
an overview from 1998 to 2012
[IEA 2010 World Energy Outlook]|
[IEA 2011 World Energy Outlook]
[IEA 2012 World Energy Outlook (1)]
[IEA 2012 World Energy Outlook (2)]
[15 years IEA WEO - from 1998 to 2012]
[IEA 2013 World Energy Outlook]
[Energy Page List]
[Some oil depletion graphs of different countries]
The IEA writes about its 2012 World Energy Outlook:
"Industry and government decision makers and others
with a stake in the energy sector all need WEO-2012. It
presents authoritative projections of energy trends through
to 2035 and insights into what they mean for energy security,
environmental sustainability and economic development."
From the press presentations, the executive summary and the discussions by peak oil scientists it is clear that the IEA is overly optimistic and still fully embedded in the ideology of continued growth on a finite planet.
Dr. Fatih Birol presenting the WEO in Bern:
Fatih Birol 11 Dec 2012 (audio)
Vortrag des Bundesrats Doris Leuthard
Other IEA WEO presentations:
Press launch in London on 11 November 2012
At the Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm on 29
Nov. 2012 (begins at 10 min from start of the video)
A summary review of 15 IEA World Energy Outlooks shows the following pattern.
Further down we juxtapose some excerpts from the IEA WEOs from 1998 and 2012.
[to be finished; last update 24DEC2012 (09DEC2012)]
top Energy page list
- The WEOs are embedded in a positivist pattern of futher growth and progress, as if the world were flat and resources infinite.
- Resource scarcities and climate change are mentioned but the IEA is confident that technology can provide the solutions.
- The forecasts generally cover a time span of 30 years, after which the IEA world ends.
- The WEO occasionally refers to environmental problems such as biodiversity loss, water, desertification, and food production for a steadily rising world population. The "solutions" "must" be found, as if the use of the imperative would mean that solutions can be found.
- Trade, economic growth, lifting poor countries out of poverty, and employment are the common theme for the positivist trends. No question is asked whether the earth can support ever more people and their products, and what happens when we have used up all natural resources, which include living matter and minerals, as well as soil fertility and livng space.
- The unreflected BAU ideology that 1.4 billion people should get electricity, and thus get access to all electric amenities of the overdeveloped world, never mind where this electricity could come from.
- Hydraulic dams are still seen as an option to increase electricity production, in spite of the fact that there is no water that could be used without harming biodiversity and food production.
- The usual finger is pointed at energy subsidies, although some countries may have valid social reasons for such subsidies.
- The IEA is blindly confident in the environmental harmlessness of unconventional oil and gas exploration, "if" the correct rules and technologies are applied.
- Energy efficiency is seen as a solution, even allowing more economic growth, without questioning growth and concluding that growth is a suicidal policy on a finite world.
- The IEA follows the prevailing opinion that greenhouse emissions and the effects of climate change can be mitigated by investment, i.e. technology and innovation. In reality there is no technology that could significantly reduce emissions and/or sequester greenhouse gases. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can only be applied to power stations, and it is a questionable technology without any guarantee of long-term storage.
Some IEA excerpts
"Perspectives for international oil markets
hinge on Iraq’s success in revitalising its oil sector." [Strange that the world oil market should depend on the production of one single country. Is this an indirect admission that all other countries have reached the maximum oil extraction capacity?]
"[...]the critical challenges facing
the energy system: to meet the world’s ever-growing energy needs, led by rising incomes and
populations in emerging economies; to provide energy access to the world’s poorest; and to
bring the world towards meeting its climate change objectives."
"Our Efficient World Scenario shows how tackling the barriers to energy efficiency
investment can unleash this potential and realise huge gains for energy security, economic
growth and the environment."
for realistic answers