Scénarios time - growth stop...  f  |  d 

The below shows possible futures. These, however, invariably spark strong reactions and questions that must be answered.
The outer graph shows the development over a period of 2 million years. The smaller graph in the blue frame shows the development since the beginnings of agriculture, some 240 generations ago. Humans with our potential and posture have existed since at least 100,000 years, which is 4,000 generations of 25 years each. Modern time with our explosion of populations and resource consumption started around 1750, that is 10 generations ago. Present world population size is 6.5 billion (2006) - and growing at a rate of 80 million a year. Compare facing the future with on-line population counters. Resource consumption and depletion is growing relatively faster than population growth because of economic growth.
This explosion has occurred because of the easily available fossil energies and technological developments. The end of fossil energy is not too far off - one to 3 generations, maybe 4. Then our life styles will readapt to low levels of resource consumption and population sizes. The tiny orange dome represents the total past and future fossil energy used by humans, till about 2100. Population size and energy use will reduce because of overexploitation of resources, pollution and their consequences. Technology won't help since it also requires resources which are being exhausted.
The open question is which key resource will be depleted first and will then lead to a collapse of the present structures. A grim future lies ahead. Unless we decide to halt growth and convert back to a low resource use society. We will count ourselves lucky if full-scale resource wars can be avoided.
The below graph shows the development - past and possible future - from 1900 to 2100.

The utimate scenario could well be - but God forbid! - the flooding scenes as pictured here ... albeit not limited to the blacks or colored people. We believe climate change will also hit the white-collared whites.
  • growth table de croissances Wachstumstafel
  • anniversaries
  • More is Less
  • Limits to Growth from the "Towards a Sustainable Economy", by Ted Trainer (1996)
  • Some pages from the book "Ein Planet wird geplündert", by Herbert Gruhl (1976)
  • Overshoot chapter 11 - Fact versus Faith
    The above graphs and perspectives raise important questions, which must be answered. You find some important questions here.
    Also see scenarios and about ecoglobe.
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    The Limits to growth curve was never really falsified. Only the time frame was incorrect. Today, more than 40 years later, the situation is worse since we have grown our economies and the world population and per capita resource consumption enormously.
    The 1972 curves from the Limit to Growth can be transposed along the time axis and we see the same threatening future of depletion and ensueing die-off.
    One should not believe that existing and yet-to-be-invented technology will save us. Since technology cannot revive extinct species, nor can it recreate depleted resources.     (Image source: "Revisiting the Limits to Growth After Peak Oil" - "In the 1970s a rising world population and the finite resources available to support it were hot topics. Interest faded—but it’s time to take another look Charles A. S. Hall and John W. Day, Jr. - american scientist May-June 2009")
    The comments in red font were added November 2011.
    When deaths get higher than births, the birth rates cannot continue to rise, as is suggested at the point "x" by 2050.
    When the population declines rapidly, the birth rates must decline as well. Because less women cannot increase individual births to compensate for the reduced number of women.