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scenarios - overview
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We maintain in the balances with nature if we don't consume natural resources and minerals faster than nature requires for regeneration and replenishment. Titanic
base scenario...
Promoting growth...















... and the planet is getting relatively smaller!

A scenario is...

an outline of events - planned or unplanned, possible or probable - depending on the circumstances.

There are two interdependent factors:

  • Humans, that is our activities,
  • Nature, that is all other life forms and the planet.

    All life forms, including humans, are normally in a dynamic balance in the environment. Over time, humans have created local unbalances, which nature corrected.

    Presently, we are creating an ever increasing global unbalance, because we are far too many people, using far too much non-renewable resources, and destroying nature with other life forms. This is called Overshoot. back






    Current scenarios show a world that keeps getting smaller because we keep growing, until nothing will be left and we will perish in a depleted environment. That is called die-off.back
    We have it in our hands to stop growth and return to sustainability.back

    The human variables are:
  • Population growth
  • Economic growth
  • Technology

    The resulting Impact is often expressed in the equation I = P x A x T back

  • Peak Oil
  • "The world has two energy crises but no real answers"
  • Happy New Year to the H.O.T. People.
  • "The Economist" HOT scenario from 1999: Hope Optimism Growth
  • www.jayhanson.us - peak oil and peak population scenarios
  • www.paulchefurka.ca/Oil_Food.html - Food price vs. Oil price
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